On today’s episode of Decoder, we’re diving into the topics of tariffs and trade wars. To make sense of the current chaos, I’ve been speaking with the minds behind the software systems that power global trade.
We received positive feedback from listeners about our episode with Evan Smith from Altana. He explained how his supply chain data highlights the shifting locations of manufacturing as globalization evolves. Today, I’m excited to welcome back one of my favorite Decoder guests: Ryan Petersen, the CEO of Flexport. His company’s software handles the complex logistics of shipping goods worldwide, from factories to consumers.
Ryan has appeared on Decoder twice before, in 2022 and again in 2023. Those episodes are well worth a listen. What makes Ryan particularly intriguing is that he leads a Silicon Valley software company focused on the tangible and intricate process of global shipping via air, sea, and land. His insights bridge the digital and physical realms, especially concerning tariffs. Flexport, also a customs broker, oversees these processes closely, offering Ryan a real-time view of tariff impacts as goods arrive at U.S. ports and proceed through customs.
However, the tariffs introduced by the Trump administration are far from ordinary. I wanted to explore their real-world impact, where it seems like a strategic standoff between the U.S. and China is unsettling markets and causing widespread alarm across various industries. Despite this chaos, goods and services must still be transported, and tariffs need to be paid. According to Ryan, tariffs are already influencing the origin points of goods, with shipments from Vietnam on Flexport’s platform surpassing those from China for the first time recently.
Ryan has been in a state of high alert recently, adapting to rapid changes. Flexport is operating a real-time tariffs live blog for its clients to keep them updated. The unpredictability of Trump’s tariffs is so significant that when we recorded on Monday, we were aware that the figures might differ by Thursday’s episode release. Indeed, our predictions were correct — tariffs on syringes from China leapt from 154% to 245%, and those on lithium-ion batteries surged to 173%.
Thus, our discussion transcended specific figures, focusing on how the system is supposed to work, its current state, and whether it is functioning effectively at all. Following Ryan on social media reveals his view that the situation might result in short-term stagnation and potential long-term financial collapses.
I directly asked him if there’s any way to persuade the White House towards a sensible resolution to protect the U.S. economy from significant harm. Ryan, commendably, maintains a composed demeanor, expressing a desire to give decision-makers the benefit of the doubt while calmly advising his clients. Yet, you can sense his dwindling patience, and he candidly discusses the dire consequences if the current trajectory continues.
For further reading on our discussion topics, explore the links below. If you have questions or comments about this episode, email us at decoder@theverge.com. We genuinely read every email!
