The Nintendo Console with the Most Impressive…

Nintendo has set a target to sell 15 million units of the Switch 2 within its current financial year. While analysts speculate this figure may be modest, Nintendo attributes their caution to the console’s pricing structure. But what does this actually imply? Is this target realistic? Achieving it—will that ensure the Switch 2’s success? If a console sells out immediately upon release, what does that signal? Could there still be a risk of it flopping like the Wii U?

It’s difficult to say definitively, but a look at previous Nintendo console launches can shed some light. I’ve analyzed historical sales data to uncover which Nintendo consoles had the strongest debut years. To gain a clearer perspective beyond the typical immediate sellout, I’ve categorized the launch as the first year (or first four fiscal quarters) the console is available.

It’s worth noting that Nintendo only began reporting quarterly sales figures for its consoles in the mid-2000s, and earlier data tends to be annual and less precise. Additionally, many older consoles launched in different regions (Japan, North America, Europe) at staggered times, which slowed their overall sales potential.

Despite these limitations, there are intriguing insights that put Nintendo’s forecast of 15 million for the Switch 2 into perspective. While selling that number of consoles wouldn’t be disappointing, it doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a guaranteed success either.