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Starlink Faces Competition: A Recipe for Orbital Chaos

Starlink Faces Competition: The Looming Crisis of Orbital Congestion

On the night of April 28th, Amazon initiated its latest effort to compete with SpaceX’s Starlink by launching the first of its Project Kuiper satellites. With 27 satellites now orbiting Earth, Amazon is among a rising number of companies aiming to deploy over 1,000 satellites to establish their own mega constellations. As more satellites populate the skies, the risks of overcrowding increase, and any potential collisions could have catastrophic consequences.

In addition to Amazon and SpaceX, UK-based OneWeb, which combined with French satellite operator Eutelsat in 2023, has its own satellite constellation. Several Chinese companies are also planning their own. Notably, the Chinese government is backing the Guowang mega constellation, which started its launch operations last year while remaining largely under wraps. Meanwhile, the commercial Qianfan, or Thousand Sails project, commenced launching in 2023 with aims to position as many as 15,000 satellites into orbit.

A recent publication from the European Space Agency (ESA) indicated that over 2,500 objects were launched into low-Earth orbit in 2024, a number more than five times greater than any annual records prior to 2020. The majority of these launches were part of commercial satellite constellations, with annual launch rates continuing to escalate.

Currently, the number of operational satellites approaches that of debris in orbit. If the trend of launches persists, ESA forecasts that by 2050, there could be nearly 50,000 objects larger than 10 cm in low-Earth orbit. Over the coming years, we may see an average of eight satellites launched daily, representing a daily influx of four tons of materials into space.

These satellites provide communication and internet access to remote areas and regions struck by natural disasters or conflict. However, with the increasing number of operational satellites alongside debris from outdated missions, space is becoming increasingly congested and the situation is expected to worsen with additional launches.

Experts agree that there is an urgent need for more rigorous regulations concerning the management of orbital objects, but in today’s increasingly fragmented world, the prospect of global cooperation to address space safety seems more distant than ever.

“There is a rush to fill low-Earth orbit

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