With the imminent launch of the Switch 2, both analysts and gamers are keenly observing how Nintendo will follow up on the success of its best-selling home console. The scramble to secure a Switch 2 pre-order indicates a strong initial demand, suggesting that Nintendo may have little to worry about at launch.
However, as time goes on, factors such as tariffs, an increasing cost of living, and a crowded market could present challenges for the Switch 2. In a discussion with analysts and gamers, The Verge highlighted that while the console is likely to enjoy a successful debut, its long-term prospects appear uncertain.
The Wii U often surfaces in conversations about the Switch 2, representing a notable Nintendo misstep. Stephen Totilo, a writer for GameFile, pointed out that the Wii U’s confusing controller design, sluggish interface, and lack of standout games contributed to its poor performance, with fewer than 14 million units sold compared to the Wii’s over 100 million. Although Nintendo anticipates selling a million more Switch 2 units in its first year than the Wii U did throughout its entire lifecycle, past performance doesn’t guarantee future success. Totilo noted that the Wii U sold out during its initial launch as well, surpassing the launch sales figures of the Xbox 360 and PS3 in the U.S. at that time.
When examining sales predictions, Mat Piscatella, a video game analyst from Circana, cautioned that launch sales often reflect supply availability rather than overall potential. He emphasized that understanding the target audience is critical, noting the difference in behavior between gaming enthusiasts and the general mass market. Piscatella observed that much of the current enthusiasm for the Switch 2 is driven by dedicated gamers, especially following the lengthy gap since the last major console launches—the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X/S.
The uproar surrounding pre-orders indicates substantial demand, with U.S. pre-orders selling out within hours of their opening—prompting long lines at GameStop stores. Yet, it’s the reaction of the broader market that will determine the console’s ultimate success, especially given the previous triumphs of the Wii and the original Switch. Piscatella pointed out that many mainstream consumers, currently focused on free-to-play games and their existing gaming content, are still weighing their options.
The gaming industry is in a complicated state, with rising development costs for blockbuster titles and a trend toward fewer game purchases per consumer, as established titles continue to dominate interest. Persistent layoffs within the industry have further complicated the timely release of new games, combined with the unique U.S. tariff issues anticipated for 2025. This volatility creates a challenging environment for the introduction of a new gaming console.
Keza MacDonald, a video game editor at The Guardian, highlighted that for many, a gaming console can feel like an extravagant purchase, especially for families. She expressed concerns that those wanting a Switch 2 may have already secured their orders, and that Nintendo’s challenge lies in persuading a broader audience to consider buying one—an effort that seems to be lacking.
During the April Switch 2 reveal, Nintendo showcased a console featuring incremental updates and performance enhancements, which may appeal to hardcore fans but might not capture the attention of casual consumers. Without more compelling offerings to attract the wider audience beyond just devoted followers, the Switch 2 could face difficulties establishing its market presence.
Kushal Raval, an operations manager at Vox Media, noted his reservations about the Switch 2’s features, believing the voice chat functionality lacks significant appeal. Although he acknowledged the potential improvement in game performance with the new console, he is leaning toward the Steam Deck, especially with the anticipated $450-$500 price tag in mind.
Others expressed similar sentiments. Jackie Noack, a video producer at Vox Media, remarked that the usage of her Switch Lite, purchased during the pandemic, doesn’t justify an upgrade to the new model. Notably, cost remains a significant consideration, with many indicating that $500 seems quite steep.
While the Switch 2 is unlikely to flop like the Wii U, expectations for it to replicate the original Switch’s success are tempered by factors like pricing and a lack of standout new features. The original Switch benefited from unique circumstances that drove its popularity, particularly during the pandemic and the viral success of Animal Crossing. As MacDonald noted, the context that facilitated the original’s success seems difficult to replicate.
In the weeks leading up to the Switch 2’s launch, the intense pressure from eager fans combined with a history of leaks and Nintendo’s typical reticence has created an atmosphere of high anticipation. With the console’s reveal and the enthusiastic feedback from dedicated fans, that pressure is about to release with its anticipated launch.
As Totilo aptly summarized, "Simply because of the logo on the box, it’s safe to say that the Switch 2 is too Nintendo to fail—at least in the early going."
